WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS, II
Posted on Thursday, March 15, 2007
The Hydrogen Future
(Exerpt from The Extreme Future, James Canton, 2006)
Are you ready for cars that go 10,000 miles before they need a refill and cost pennies on the dollar? Get ready for hydrogen. It will change everything. Maybe.
Hydrogen is the most plentiful gas in the universe. It’s also a powerhouse– it has the highest energy content per unit of weight of any known fuel. It’s aboundant, reliable, renewable, clean ( a hydrogen-powered car produces water as its exhaust), and secure (because hydrogen is everywhere, no country would have to rely on foreign suppliers). That leaves just one requirement: affordability. The trick with hydrogen is that it never occurs by itself in nature; it always combines with other elements, such as oxygen or carbon. At the moment, it’s quite costly to separate it from those other elements and transfer it into fuel cells, which are standard storage technology for this form of energy. In fact, the cost of doing so is greater than the current value of the energy created. That’s why you don’t yet drive a hydrogen-powered car. But that will change.
Hydrogen-powered vehicles are coming in the future. Hydrogen-generating power plants are farther down the road, but they are coming, too. There is one in Iceland, the first of its kind to fuel a city. In fact, the hydrogen economy, a holistic transportation infrastructure, will arrive within 35 years.
When you consider how the auto industry started and how the mass market for automobiles evolved, it is not hard to envision the beginning of the hydrogen industry. At the turn of the last century, the idea of personal transportation that people could use to pick a destination and choose whenever they wanted to leave was a revolutionary concept. But it was the relatively inexpensive production of cars that made Henry Ford’s breakthrough brilliant. His vision of factory automation enabled the Model T to become a mass-market success.
Hydro Futures
When hydrogen becomes inexpensive in the coming years, it will follow a similar path into the future. Just as thousands of affordable Model T’s came off the assembly line into the marketplace, transforming mobility in America and the world, hydrogen, with a hungry mass market waiting, will find similar success.
To be sure, hydrogen has problems other than high cost. It is unstable and needs to be controlled. The manufacture of hydrogen requires other energy usage, such as nuclear or oil. The technology needed to store and pump hydrogen into vehicles is still primitive and not yet adopted for wide usage. But none of these obstacles is impossible to overcome. Hydrogen will transform the future of energy and ensure a more secure and reliable source of fuel for consumers, business, mass transportation, and even for space travel. Hydrogen is coming fast.
More than US$5 billion is being spent around the globe by government and industry for research and development on hydrogen– the U.S. has already launched a $1.2 billion hydrogen initiative, and auto, utility, oil, and gas companies are falling over each other to rush innovative breakthroughs to market. The largest investments are being made today at General Motors, Shell, Exxon, BP, Toyota, Ford, BMW, and Honda. More than 20 governments are directing their energy investments to hydrogen, sensing that this is the next big thing. Though significant work needs to be done, hydrogen holds the potential for fueling the future, more so than anything else.
The likelihood is that significant innovations in this energy source are coming soon. I forecast that more than US$10 billion will be needed and spent on hydrogen research over the net 10 to 10 years worldwide. This will lead to a mass-market set of innovations, similar to the innovations that first launched the modern auto, train, and shipping industries. By 2035, or even sooner, hydrogen will be a viable alternative to oil and gas, meeting as much as 35% of our energy needs.
We are at the beginning of the hydrogen economy now. Get ready. It will change everything at a rapid pace never seen before in human history.
Top Future Benefits of Hydrogen
- Reliable Source. Increased access to a reliable source of energy makes hydrogen worth working toward.
- Flexigble. Hydrogen can fuel personal and public transportation, and numerous energy-dependent devices, engines, and needs.
- Self-Reliant. Not having to count on foreign monopolies and the geopolitics of oil is worth the investment.
- Environmentally Friendly. Hydrogen produces water as exhaust, though oil is still necessary to produce hydrogen fuel.
- Hydrogen Works Today. We know hydrogen can provide power today– it is just too costly and is not ready for mass transportation use.
- Unlimited Access. Hydrogen could be an unlimited power source.
- Ultimately Inexpensive and Cost-Effective. If the Iraq war costs the U.S. between $500 billion and $1 trillion, and if the U.S. were to invest half that in hydrogen, the U.S. would see dramatic breakthroughs in energy– fast.
Nanotechnology for Energy… to be continued
The Hydrogen Future
(Exerpt from The Extreme Future, James Canton, 2006)
Are you ready for cars that go 10,000 miles before they need a refill and cost pennies on the dollar? Get ready for hydrogen. It will change everything. Maybe.
Hydrogen is the most plentiful gas in the universe. It’s also a powerhouse– it has the highest energy content per unit of weight of any known fuel. It’s aboundant, reliable, renewable, clean ( a hydrogen-powered car produces water as its exhaust), and secure (because hydrogen is everywhere, no country would have to rely on foreign suppliers). That leaves just one requirement: affordability. The trick with hydrogen is that it never occurs by itself in nature; it always combines with other elements, such as oxygen or carbon. At the moment, it’s quite costly to separate it from those other elements and transfer it into fuel cells, which are standard storage technology for this form of energy. In fact, the cost of doing so is greater than the current value of the energy created. That’s why you don’t yet drive a hydrogen-powered car. But that will change.
Hydrogen-powered vehicles are coming in the future. Hydrogen-generating power plants are farther down the road, but they are coming, too. There is one in Iceland, the first of its kind to fuel a city. In fact, the hydrogen economy, a holistic transportation infrastructure, will arrive within 35 years.
When you consider how the auto industry started and how the mass market for automobiles evolved, it is not hard to envision the beginning of the hydrogen industry. At the turn of the last century, the idea of personal transportation that people could use to pick a destination and choose whenever they wanted to leave was a revolutionary concept. But it was the relatively inexpensive production of cars that made Henry Ford’s breakthrough brilliant. His vision of factory automation enabled the Model T to become a mass-market success.
Hydro Futures
When hydrogen becomes inexpensive in the coming years, it will follow a similar path into the future. Just as thousands of affordable Model T’s came off the assembly line into the marketplace, transforming mobility in America and the world, hydrogen, with a hungry mass market waiting, will find similar success.
To be sure, hydrogen has problems other than high cost. It is unstable and needs to be controlled. The manufacture of hydrogen requires other energy usage, such as nuclear or oil. The technology needed to store and pump hydrogen into vehicles is still primitive and not yet adopted for wide usage. But none of these obstacles is impossible to overcome. Hydrogen will transform the future of energy and ensure a more secure and reliable source of fuel for consumers, business, mass transportation, and even for space travel. Hydrogen is coming fast.
More than US$5 billion is being spent around the globe by government and industry for research and development on hydrogen– the U.S. has already launched a $1.2 billion hydrogen initiative, and auto, utility, oil, and gas companies are falling over each other to rush innovative breakthroughs to market. The largest investments are being made today at General Motors, Shell, Exxon, BP, Toyota, Ford, BMW, and Honda. More than 20 governments are directing their energy investments to hydrogen, sensing that this is the next big thing. Though significant work needs to be done, hydrogen holds the potential for fueling the future, more so than anything else.
The likelihood is that significant innovations in this energy source are coming soon. I forecast that more than US$10 billion will be needed and spent on hydrogen research over the net 10 to 10 years worldwide. This will lead to a mass-market set of innovations, similar to the innovations that first launched the modern auto, train, and shipping industries. By 2035, or even sooner, hydrogen will be a viable alternative to oil and gas, meeting as much as 35% of our energy needs.
We are at the beginning of the hydrogen economy now. Get ready. It will change everything at a rapid pace never seen before in human history.
Top Future Benefits of Hydrogen
- Reliable Source. Increased access to a reliable source of energy makes hydrogen worth working toward.
- Flexigble. Hydrogen can fuel personal and public transportation, and numerous energy-dependent devices, engines, and needs.
- Self-Reliant. Not having to count on foreign monopolies and the geopolitics of oil is worth the investment.
- Environmentally Friendly. Hydrogen produces water as exhaust, though oil is still necessary to produce hydrogen fuel.
- Hydrogen Works Today. We know hydrogen can provide power today– it is just too costly and is not ready for mass transportation use.
- Unlimited Access. Hydrogen could be an unlimited power source.
- Ultimately Inexpensive and Cost-Effective. If the Iraq war costs the U.S. between $500 billion and $1 trillion, and if the U.S. were to invest half that in hydrogen, the U.S. would see dramatic breakthroughs in energy– fast.
Nanotechnology for Energy… to be continued
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March 16th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Sir,
Thanks for the article. I believe that in Iceland they are already doing this. It is interesting that they are an island with no bias for gas because it is such a high cost for them to import oil. The markets do seem to be looking for other sources of energy as it does seem to be getting harder to squeeze the sands for more liquid gold.
Evan Andersen Lydia Capital
September 12th, 2007 at 2:19 am
The future holds many disappointing choices, however, I believe this post is very interesting to our readers and will be adding a back link to this post. Hope the future holds riches to the worlds poor and holds a higher median to our societies income!