WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS, I
Posted on Monday, March 12, 2007
A New Energy Age
(Extract from The Extreme Future, James Canton, 2006)
Several years ago, a former Saudi oil minister issued what has since become an oft-quoted prophecy: “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” It was a lament, an acknowledgment that a day of reckoning was coming that would change the global balance of wealth and power. A fluke of geology had made the vast emptiness of the Saudi desert the number one source of the most important commodity on earth. But the good times would not, and could not, last forever, and he knew it.
Top 10 Extreme Energy Trends
- We are running out of energy. New global demands from every nation will outpace supply within twenty-five years unless plentiful new sources are found. Less energy will be a drag on GDP.
- Democracy is at risk. Energy terrorism will become a future weapon threatening democratic reforms, the rights of the individual, global peace, and security.
- Energy, being linked to all vital services such as health, food, transportation, and commerce, will be a key driver of the future global economy.
- The world’s addiction to oil must end. Clean, renewable energy sources such as solar, hydrogen, nuclear fusion, and wind will be essential for future prosperity.
- Foreign oil is politically risky, expensive, and unreliable as a long-term fuel for the future.
- New energy innovations must attract billions in investment. Economic growth and productivity will decline if non-oil energy solutions are not invented fast.
- Pollution from fossil fuels will be lined to a growing number of future public health risks like global warming.
- Energy security will become an explosive battleground in the 21st century, ushering in a new era of either global cooperation or conflict.
- Nations will rise and fall based on their access to future energy resources. New economies like China and India will compete with the U.S. and Europe in a new geopolitical power struggle.
- New energy innovations will invigorate global commerce, spawn new industries, and provide new jobs.
The Myth of Aboundance
Most people in the U.S. (and Singapore) are oblivious to our extreme dependence on energy. We expect energy to be there always, everywhere, for every need we have now or in the future. We live an illusion of sorts, perpetuated by the aboundance of the moment, far from the reality of the future I am here to predict. Storms of change are brewing, driven by an energy-competitive and energy-restrictive future. Our cheap oil habit and energy dependence, which is so fundamentally linked to everyday existence, is about to end. Unless, that is, there are fundamental changes in energy supply. Even President George Bush admitted, “We are addicted to oil.”
First, some perspective. The United States imports about 12 million barrels of oil a day, or about 60% of the oil it consumes. In 1970, dependence on imported oil was just 21.5% of U.S. consumption, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The U.S. is the world’s #1 oil consumer, using more than 26% of the world’s oil (Japan and China, the next two leading consumers, together account for 13%). Roughly 11% of global oil production is devoted purely to providing gasoline for cars and trucks on American soil. America spends more than US$25 billion a year on Persian Gulf oil. At the same time, the U.S. possesses only about 3% of proven reserves (opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling would increase that by just 1%). Already, you can see just how close the ties are between oil– especially foreign oil– and what we consider the American way of life.
Looking ahead, world oil consumption is likely to rise by 50% by 2020, and the U.S. is projected to play a leading role in that anticipated increase. If you consider the needs of fast-growing, oil-hungry countries like China and India, as well as the other emerging developing in Asia and Latin America, what you have is an unsustainable energy world. China alone is expected to quadruple its oil demands by 2020. Now try adding three billion more people to the planet in the next 50 years. Oh, and did I mention that new global oil discoveries peaked several decades ago?
The Future of Energy
A variety of energy sources are emerging now that will offer productive choices in the future. Some of these sources have the potential to be significant in becoming viable alternatives to petro-based energy. First, though, it is useful to forecast the preferred ingredients that would drive these trends. The following is a list of 6 requirements for future energy sources that would make a difference in weaning us off the oil habit and enabling a more sustainable global world. New energy sources must be
- Aboundant
- Reliable
- Renewable
- Clean
- Affordable
- Secure
Depending on whom you speak with, there are any number of potential sources that might satisfy all those requirements. I’ll touch on several, but based on my forecasts, the two that offer the most promist, and therefore deserve the most immediate attention, are hydrogen and nanotech.
To be continued…
A New Energy Age
(Extract from The Extreme Future, James Canton, 2006)
Several years ago, a former Saudi oil minister issued what has since become an oft-quoted prophecy: “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” It was a lament, an acknowledgment that a day of reckoning was coming that would change the global balance of wealth and power. A fluke of geology had made the vast emptiness of the Saudi desert the number one source of the most important commodity on earth. But the good times would not, and could not, last forever, and he knew it.
Top 10 Extreme Energy Trends
- We are running out of energy. New global demands from every nation will outpace supply within twenty-five years unless plentiful new sources are found. Less energy will be a drag on GDP.
- Democracy is at risk. Energy terrorism will become a future weapon threatening democratic reforms, the rights of the individual, global peace, and security.
- Energy, being linked to all vital services such as health, food, transportation, and commerce, will be a key driver of the future global economy.
- The world’s addiction to oil must end. Clean, renewable energy sources such as solar, hydrogen, nuclear fusion, and wind will be essential for future prosperity.
- Foreign oil is politically risky, expensive, and unreliable as a long-term fuel for the future.
- New energy innovations must attract billions in investment. Economic growth and productivity will decline if non-oil energy solutions are not invented fast.
- Pollution from fossil fuels will be lined to a growing number of future public health risks like global warming.
- Energy security will become an explosive battleground in the 21st century, ushering in a new era of either global cooperation or conflict.
- Nations will rise and fall based on their access to future energy resources. New economies like China and India will compete with the U.S. and Europe in a new geopolitical power struggle.
- New energy innovations will invigorate global commerce, spawn new industries, and provide new jobs.
The Myth of Aboundance
Most people in the U.S. (and Singapore) are oblivious to our extreme dependence on energy. We expect energy to be there always, everywhere, for every need we have now or in the future. We live an illusion of sorts, perpetuated by the aboundance of the moment, far from the reality of the future I am here to predict. Storms of change are brewing, driven by an energy-competitive and energy-restrictive future. Our cheap oil habit and energy dependence, which is so fundamentally linked to everyday existence, is about to end. Unless, that is, there are fundamental changes in energy supply. Even President George Bush admitted, “We are addicted to oil.”
First, some perspective. The United States imports about 12 million barrels of oil a day, or about 60% of the oil it consumes. In 1970, dependence on imported oil was just 21.5% of U.S. consumption, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The U.S. is the world’s #1 oil consumer, using more than 26% of the world’s oil (Japan and China, the next two leading consumers, together account for 13%). Roughly 11% of global oil production is devoted purely to providing gasoline for cars and trucks on American soil. America spends more than US$25 billion a year on Persian Gulf oil. At the same time, the U.S. possesses only about 3% of proven reserves (opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling would increase that by just 1%). Already, you can see just how close the ties are between oil– especially foreign oil– and what we consider the American way of life.
Looking ahead, world oil consumption is likely to rise by 50% by 2020, and the U.S. is projected to play a leading role in that anticipated increase. If you consider the needs of fast-growing, oil-hungry countries like China and India, as well as the other emerging developing in Asia and Latin America, what you have is an unsustainable energy world. China alone is expected to quadruple its oil demands by 2020. Now try adding three billion more people to the planet in the next 50 years. Oh, and did I mention that new global oil discoveries peaked several decades ago?
The Future of Energy
A variety of energy sources are emerging now that will offer productive choices in the future. Some of these sources have the potential to be significant in becoming viable alternatives to petro-based energy. First, though, it is useful to forecast the preferred ingredients that would drive these trends. The following is a list of 6 requirements for future energy sources that would make a difference in weaning us off the oil habit and enabling a more sustainable global world. New energy sources must be
- Aboundant
- Reliable
- Renewable
- Clean
- Affordable
- Secure
Depending on whom you speak with, there are any number of potential sources that might satisfy all those requirements. I’ll touch on several, but based on my forecasts, the two that offer the most promist, and therefore deserve the most immediate attention, are hydrogen and nanotech.
To be continued…
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